Trump can live in denial all he wants. He can call all of the negative polling out there “FAKE NEWS!” all he wants. He can pull imaginary numbers out of his ass, and he can fire his pollsters, who brought dire tidings. He can flog his staff hourly if it gets him through the night.
But there’s one thing that he can’t do, no matter how hard he may try. He can’t con himself. In the deepest corner of his amoeba sized mind, there is a “no bullshit” zone, and it’s been breached. Trump already admitted that he knows the truth, and he probably doesn’t even realize it, and so far, neither does anybody else. In one breath Trump decries his terrible polling numbers as “fake news,” and in the very next breath angrily states that his numbers should be 10-15 point higher, if it weren’t for that damn Mueller “witch hunt!” The fact that Trump says that his poll numbers should be higher is an overt admission that they are what the polls say they are.
So, Trump knows that he is in fact that filthiest of words, a loser! But if I’m Trump or his campaign, I’m not most worried about Joe Biden, or Bernie Sanders, or even Pete Buttigies or Cory Booker. because he has a strategy in place to deal with them, even with strong women like Elizabeth Warren or Kamala Harris. But there is no strategy to deal with “The most dangerous man alive.”
Here’s the strategy, the same one he used with Hillary Clinton. Trump knows he’s never going to climb over 46%, so the secret is to drag his opponent down lower than himself. That will be harder this time. Because Trump’s 46% is now more like 42%. Trump turned ff a lot of voters who “took a chance” on him in 2016, about 4%. His only hope is to make his Democratic opponent so noxious that enough of that 3-4% will hold their noses and put him over the top again, rather than vote for a Democrat.
And that’s where a dude by the name of Justin Amash can fuck Trump six ways from Sunday. Amash is already a thorn in Trump’s side. As the only GOP member of congress to support opening impeachment hearings against Trump, he is numero uno on Trump’s shit list. But if Amash takes the next step, he could become a ninja assassin to Trump’s chances for reelection.
Justin Amash is not a “traditional” Republican, he’s actually much more of a libertarian, and freely admits it. In that he is akin to GOP Senator Rand Paul, except that Amash truly believes in libertarian principles, as opposed to cravenly paying lip service to it for political advantage. Amash’s reelection after endorsing impeaching the Mango Messiah is being seen as a test of whether or not a traditional Republican can survive in the party of Trump. But what if Amash dropping the hammer on Trump is more of a sign that he’s fed up with the Republican party’s craven cowardice with Trump, and isn’t interested in running for another term in the Trump snake pit?
Justin Amash would be the dream candidate for the Libertarian party on their 2020 ticket. Amash brings to the table legitimate libertarian street creds, and with his mutiny against Trump, he brings national name recognition that the Libertarian party could never in a million years hope to create from the ground up. The Libertarian party is already on the ballot in all 50 states, due to their showing in 2016. And if Amash decides to take that step, he could be pulling the rope that sounds the death knell for Trump’s reelection chances.
Trump is going to need to regain a sizable portion of that 3-4% that he has thrown away if he hopes to squeak out another electoral college victory. Whether or not Trump could make his eventual Democratic opponent toxic enough to get the majority of those people to come out and hold their noses long enough to vote for him again is an open question, but it is a worrisome threat on the Democrats flank.
Justin Amash changes that calculus entirely. Voters left with only a binary choice between a horrible Trump, and in their minds an equally horrible Democratic candidate, may choose the known evil. But i they have a recognized Libertarian candidate, whose name they know, and who espouses ideas and values that they share more than they do any Democratic beliefs, then they could well be induced to show up and punch a hole for Amash, much in the same way that disaffected Bernie voters and independents did for Stein and Johnson in 2016, pitching their votes into the Libertarian and Green party dumpsters, rather than give Clinton the nod. And if that happens, Trump is sunk.
You’d know soon enough. If Amash decides to run on the Libertarian ticket, you could start to look at polling after the conventions. If Amash is running at 8-9% instead of 2-4%, Trump is in durance vile. Democrats are pretty solid in their desire to see Trump in the rear view mirror, electability is the #1 issue for Democrats as we speak. They will largely rally behind whomever the eventual candidate is, they saw what happened the last time they fucked around. If Amash has elevated numbers, they can only be coming from one place. That 3-4% that Trump desperately needs to give him a chance at survival. And if they start to break for Amash, it’s not because Justin Amash is so damn electable, it’s because they’re flipping double barrel birds at Trump without the stigma of voting for a Democrat attached to their choice. And frankly, I couldn’t care less what their logic is, results are all that matters.