John Kelly and John Bolton say Trump Won’t Run In 2024. Then Who Will Fill the GOP Vacuum Of Leadership?

Granted, we are less than 30 days away from 2022, and that is the election to focus on. No argument there. But it would be imprudent to not look at the long game and see what direction the Republican party is going. Right now the smart money says that Donald Trump is the presumptive nominee and he’s got an iron grip on the GOP. We will certainly see in short order if the latter is the case. Trump has declared war on Brian Kemp, not to mention Lisa Murkowski and Liz Cheney. We’ll see who is still standing when the dust clears. We’ll know if Brian Kemp is going to listen to Sean Hannity and “bow out” or if he has other ideas, very soon.

Which takes us back to Trump. He’s still pushing the stolen election drivel and even Lindsey Graham has said that’s a bad move. “If it becomes a grievance campaign, we’re in trouble.” John Bolton says, in the same Atlantic article just linked to,

“Imagine what would happen if he said, ‘After careful consideration, I won’t be a candidate in 2024,’” John Bolton, the former Trump White House national security adviser, told me. “You can hear the spotlight switches turning off. He’ll talk about it [running for president again] right up until the point when he doesn’t.”

Bolton’s belief is that, in the end, Trump won’t run and risk another defeat. On this point, the signs seem mixed. Trump has been coy. He gave an interview to Fox News earlier this month saying he would “probably” wait until after the midterm elections to announce whether he’ll run, though he added, “I think a lot of people will be very happy, frankly, with the decision.”

It makes complete sense what he’s doing. He can’t stay relevant and in charge unless he fosters the illusion that he’s going to be back on the ballot in three years.

“Trump won’t run,” John Kelly, who was Trump’s longest-serving chief of staff, told me. “He’ll continue talking about it; he may even declare, but he will not run. And the reason is he simply cannot be seen as a loser.”

Okay. Put it all together. Kelly and Bolton are both saying, in essence, that this is all bluster. Trump will talk the talk but he won’t follow through and walk the walk because he doesn’t want to risk losing again. He probably doesn’t even know who Adlai Stevenson is, but if he runs against Joe Biden and loses he would be duplicating the Stevenson vs. Eisenhower elections of the ’50s.

So let’s go along with that line of thinking. Let’s say he doesn’t run and he waits until the last minute to pull out. What does the GOP do? Who do they put on the ticket? Mike Pence? Oh, man. The Atlantic:

A 2024 Pence campaign looks futile no matter the scenario. If Trump runs, he’ll rally the same MAGA zealots who refuse to believe he lost the last election. And if Trump opts out, Pence isn’t his natural successor; he may have spoiled any hope of inheriting the Republican base when he defied Trump on January 6. Scanning the Republican universe, it’s hard to detect a glimmer of a Pence-for-president movement of any sort. Which leaves GOP operatives asking a version of the same question: What in the world is Mike Pence thinking?

Sarah Longwell is an anti-Trump Republican strategist who has led dozens of focus groups since the 2020 election with hard-core Trump voters, reluctant Trump voters, and 2016 Trump voters who switched to Joe Biden last year. “Pence doesn’t do well with anybody,” she told me. People make faces when she mentions Pence’s name, faces that convey a collective nah. Or maybe meh, she said, thinking it over. But the impression they leave is obvious enough, she added: “Not interested.”

As of this point, Pence hasn’t decided whether to run, his advisers say. For now, he’s focused on helping Republicans win back congressional majorities in the 2022 midterm elections. But he’s also making the sorts of moves that typically precede a presidential bid. Since leaving office on January 20, he’s been showing up in states that hold early presidential contests: New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Iowa. Next month he’s set to return to New Hampshire for a Republican fundraising event. He’s writing a book and has started a podcast, American Freedom, that is a platform to reintroduce himself to voters after four years as Trump’s mostly subservient No. 2. Speaking in a flat baritone, the erstwhile talk-radio host mixes treacly odes to public service with sharp critiques of Biden’s record. One episode devoted to the 20th anniversary of the September 11 terrorist attacks opens with Pence denouncing “the failed leadership of the Biden administration” and closes with a vignette of him and other lawmakers singing “God Bless America” on the steps of the U.S. Capitol after the attacks.

I’ll give you my honest take on it, which is that if Mike Pence runs, he’s as delusional as Mike Lindell.

So where does that leave us? You guessed it: Ron DeSantis.

A poll last month offered encouraging news for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in New Hampshire, the state that traditionally holds the first primary contest of the presidential-election season. Though Trump was the first choice among likely Republican voters, DeSantis’s favorability rating had climbed to 62 percent, eight points higher than Trump’s.

It looks like DeSantis may be it. But dear God, look at these choices: 1) The prospect of four more years of Trump 2) A watered down version of Bob Dole (which is the highest compliment I can think to pay Mike Pence) or, 3) Mr. Anti-vaxx psycho, Ron DeSantis.

Have you see this?

Ron Desantis has a new ad out calling himself “Ron DeSanta,” claiming he “saved Christmas” by opening up FL’s ports to shipping from Asia. Oh, and also offering new ‘Ron DeSanta’ products for sale. pic.twitter.com/HTRRqHi8Pu

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) November 29, 2021

That’s the line up in the Republican party. And if we want to drop acid, we can fantasize something worse, like maybe a Lindsey Graham/Paul Gosar or Ted Cruz/Louie Gohmert ticket. But it’s not much worse. There is a vacuum of leadership in the GOP. There has been for some time. That’s how we ended up with Trump in the first place.